(Reuters) - The yen held firm in Asia on Thursday, having risen broadly
on the back of a slump on Wall Street as expectations grew the Federal
Reserve could scale back stimulus as early as next week.
News
that Congress has reached a bipartisan budget deal that would end three
years of impasse and fiscal instability was seen clearing a potential
hurdle for the Fed to taper its massive bond-buying program.
The
selloff in risk assets prompted a squeeze on short yen positions, a very
crowded trade recently. That saw the euro slip to 141.20 yen, pulling
further away from a five-year peak of 142.19 set on Tuesday.
The
dollar fetched 102.46 yen, down from a seven-month high of 103.40
touched on Tuesday. Commodity currencies, as well, lost ground against
the yen.
The Aussie, often sold in times of heightened risk
aversion, fell more than 1 percent against the greenback. It last stood
at $0.9034 and could stay pinned down ahead of domestic jobs data due
7:30 p.m. ET.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the Australian
economy to have generated 10,000 jobs, not enough to keep the jobless
rate from edging up to 5.8 percent. Any disappointment could see
investors push the Aussie towards its recent low of $0.8989.
"If
job growth falls short of market expectations...the ongoing weakness in
the labor market may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to adopt a
more dovish tone for monetary policy," said David Song, currency analyst
at DailyFX.
"The central bank may show a greater willingness to
further embark on its easing cycle in 2014 as growth and inflation
remain subdued."
In contrast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
maintained its hawkish stance on Thursday, signaling that interest rates
could start rising in the first half of next year.
That helped push the kiwi to $0.8256 and well off its overnight low of $0.8201.
Oddly,
prospects for less stimulus from the Fed again failed to lift the U.S.
dollar, which was left dangling near a six-week low against a basket of
major currencies .DXY.
The main reason for its recent decline has
been a rallying euro. The common currency has climbed nearly 4 percent
since November 11 and at $1.3786 is now within easy reach of its 2013
peak of $1.3833 set back in October.
The latest run higher was
fuelled by growing expectations the European Central Bank will not be
providing fresh stimulus any time soon, although some analysts are
starting to see little value in the euro at current levels.
"We
entered a short EUR/USD recommendation Wednesday, targeting a move down
to 1.32 with our stop set at 1.3975," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a
note to clients.
"We think rate differentials are likely to move
against the euro once again in the near-term," they said, adding the
euro/dollar was trading rich according to their analysis.
There
was little reaction to media reports that Stanley Fischer, who led the
Bank of Israel for eight years until he stepped down in June, could
become the Fed's next vice chair.
Sebastien Galy, strategist at
Societe Generale, said Fischer was a mentor of the current Fed Chairman,
Ben Bernanke, and "is very rationally a dove, when needed."
Such a view, if it becomes widespread, could potentially weigh on the greenback.
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