Industrial output in the 17 countries that share the euro fell sharply
in October, a development that raises fresh questions about the
sustainability of the currency area's return to economic growth.
The
European Union's statistics agency said industrial production was 1.1%
lower than in September, the second straight month of decline and the
sharpest drop since September 2012. The decline was spread across most
of the currency area, with only Italy and Estonia recording increases in
output.
The decline in output came as a surprise, with 24
economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last week having
estimated that output rose by 0.2% during the month. It raises the
possibility that the euro zone's return to growth may come to a halt in
the final quarter of this year, having already weakened in the third
quarter.
The decline in industrial output was led by the energy
sector, which recorded a 4% drop in production during October. That
wasn't a great surprise, given that temperatures across Europe were
higher than usual during that month. However, output of capital goods
fell by 1.3%, while output of consumer durables fell by 2.4% and of
non-durables by 0.9%.
That suggests the drop in production was a
response to weak demand from businesses and consumers. Figures released
last week showed retail sales in the euro zone fell in October, while a
November survey of consumers recorded the first decline in confidence
this year.
The euro-zone economy returned to growth in the three
months to June, having contracted in each of the previous six quarters.
But having expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter, it grew by just 0.1%
in the third.
Most economists expect the economy to grow this
quarter, and pick up slowly in 2014. The European Central Bank's
economists last week said they expect the currency area's economy to
expand by 1.1% in 2014, having contracted by 0.4% this year.
A
survey of purchasing managers conducted by data provider Markit had
indicated that manufacturing output grew at a faster pace in October,
and again in November, but official figures for October suggest just the
opposite.
The ECB cut its key interest rate to a record low of
0.25% in November, and has said it has other tools at its disposal to
boost growth and prices, although policy makers appear in no rush to use
them, stressing instead the responsibility that national governments
have for restoring growth.
"The ECB can keep interest rates low
and resort to nonstandard measures as warranted by exceptional
circumstances," said Jorg Asmussen, a member of the ECB's executive
board. "We cannot, however, address by ourselves the underlying root
causes of the problems that relate to fiscal and macroeconomic
imbalances, a lack of competitiveness, low growth and high
unemployment."
The decline in industrial output as the fourth quarter began may persuade them to move more decisively.
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