(Reuters) - The yen held firm in Asia on Thursday, having risen broadly
on the back of a slump on Wall Street as expectations grew the Federal
Reserve could scale back stimulus as early as next week.
News
that Congress has reached a bipartisan budget deal that would end three
years of impasse and fiscal instability was seen clearing a potential
hurdle for the Fed to taper its massive bond-buying program.
The
selloff in risk assets prompted a squeeze on short yen positions, a very
crowded trade recently. That saw the euro slip to 141.20 yen, pulling
further away from a five-year peak of 142.19 set on Tuesday.
The
dollar fetched 102.46 yen, down from a seven-month high of 103.40
touched on Tuesday. Commodity currencies, as well, lost ground against
the yen.
The Aussie, often sold in times of heightened risk
aversion, fell more than 1 percent against the greenback. It last stood
at $0.9034 and could stay pinned down ahead of domestic jobs data due
7:30 p.m. ET.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the Australian
economy to have generated 10,000 jobs, not enough to keep the jobless
rate from edging up to 5.8 percent. Any disappointment could see
investors push the Aussie towards its recent low of $0.8989.
"If
job growth falls short of market expectations...the ongoing weakness in
the labor market may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to adopt a
more dovish tone for monetary policy," said David Song, currency analyst
at DailyFX.
"The central bank may show a greater willingness to
further embark on its easing cycle in 2014 as growth and inflation
remain subdued."
In contrast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
maintained its hawkish stance on Thursday, signaling that interest rates
could start rising in the first half of next year.
That helped push the kiwi to $0.8256 and well off its overnight low of $0.8201.
Oddly,
prospects for less stimulus from the Fed again failed to lift the U.S.
dollar, which was left dangling near a six-week low against a basket of
major currencies .DXY.
The main reason for its recent decline has
been a rallying euro. The common currency has climbed nearly 4 percent
since November 11 and at $1.3786 is now within easy reach of its 2013
peak of $1.3833 set back in October.
The latest run higher was
fuelled by growing expectations the European Central Bank will not be
providing fresh stimulus any time soon, although some analysts are
starting to see little value in the euro at current levels.
"We
entered a short EUR/USD recommendation Wednesday, targeting a move down
to 1.32 with our stop set at 1.3975," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a
note to clients.
"We think rate differentials are likely to move
against the euro once again in the near-term," they said, adding the
euro/dollar was trading rich according to their analysis.
There
was little reaction to media reports that Stanley Fischer, who led the
Bank of Israel for eight years until he stepped down in June, could
become the Fed's next vice chair.
Sebastien Galy, strategist at
Societe Generale, said Fischer was a mentor of the current Fed Chairman,
Ben Bernanke, and "is very rationally a dove, when needed."
Such a view, if it becomes widespread, could potentially weigh on the greenback.
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Saturday
Euro-Zone Industrial Output Falls Sharply in October
Industrial output in the 17 countries that share the euro fell sharply
in October, a development that raises fresh questions about the
sustainability of the currency area's return to economic growth.
The European Union's statistics agency said industrial production was 1.1% lower than in September, the second straight month of decline and the sharpest drop since September 2012. The decline was spread across most of the currency area, with only Italy and Estonia recording increases in output.
The decline in output came as a surprise, with 24 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last week having estimated that output rose by 0.2% during the month. It raises the possibility that the euro zone's return to growth may come to a halt in the final quarter of this year, having already weakened in the third quarter.
The decline in industrial output was led by the energy sector, which recorded a 4% drop in production during October. That wasn't a great surprise, given that temperatures across Europe were higher than usual during that month. However, output of capital goods fell by 1.3%, while output of consumer durables fell by 2.4% and of non-durables by 0.9%.
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The euro-zone economy returned to growth in the three months to June, having contracted in each of the previous six quarters. But having expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter, it grew by just 0.1% in the third.
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The decline in industrial output as the fourth quarter began may persuade them to move more decisively.
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The European Union's statistics agency said industrial production was 1.1% lower than in September, the second straight month of decline and the sharpest drop since September 2012. The decline was spread across most of the currency area, with only Italy and Estonia recording increases in output.
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That suggests the drop in production was a response to weak demand from businesses and consumers. Figures released last week showed retail sales in the euro zone fell in October, while a November survey of consumers recorded the first decline in confidence this year.
The euro-zone economy returned to growth in the three months to June, having contracted in each of the previous six quarters. But having expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter, it grew by just 0.1% in the third.
Most economists expect the economy to grow this quarter, and pick up slowly in 2014. The European Central Bank's economists last week said they expect the currency area's economy to expand by 1.1% in 2014, having contracted by 0.4% this year.
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Dismantle the euro, says Nobel-winning economist who once backed currency union
A Nobel prize-winning economist will on Thursday withdraw his support
for the euro saying it has created a “lost generation” unemployed
youngsters and should be broken up.
Sir Christopher Pissarides was once a key proponent of a single currency but will on Thursday accuse the euro of “dividing Europe” and say action is needed to “restore the euro’s credibility in international markets” and the “trust that Europe’s nations once had in each other”, according to the Daily Mail.
Speaking at the London School of Economics, where he teaches, Professor Pissarides will say: “The euro should either be dismantled in an orderly way or the leading members should do the necessary as fast as possible to make it growth and employment-friendly,.
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“The policies pursued now to steady the euro are costing Europe jobs and they are creating a lost generation of educated young people. This is not what the founding fathers promised.”
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Sir Christopher Pissarides was once a key proponent of a single currency but will on Thursday accuse the euro of “dividing Europe” and say action is needed to “restore the euro’s credibility in international markets” and the “trust that Europe’s nations once had in each other”, according to the Daily Mail.
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“We will get nowhere plodding along with the current line of ad hoc decision-making and inconsistent debt-relief policies.
“The policies pursued now to steady the euro are costing Europe jobs and they are creating a lost generation of educated young people. This is not what the founding fathers promised.”
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Short-term Euro Direction Unhinged with FOMC to Disrupt Markets
A
major reason for support for the Euro in recent weeks has been a lack
of new easing measures from the European Central Bank. Although a
FLS-like LTRO may be in the works, many have correctly pointed to the
dramatic contraction in the ECB’s balance sheet over the past year as a
reason for the Euro’s elevated exchange rate. The ECB’s balance sheet
has declined by -24.6% in the 52-weeks ending December 6, 2013; to
contrast, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown by +36.8% over
this same period; and the Bank of Japan’s has growth by +40.7%.
Taking these data a step further, we see that the ratio of the Fed’s balance sheet to the ECB’s balance sheet – which stood at 0.96 this time in December 2012 – is now at 1.72. On a relative basis, the Fed’s balance sheet has grown +79.2% relative to the ECB’s over the past year. We believe this has been the prime reason for a generally improving EURUSD in 2013. As such, any data or event that could alter the dynamic behind the Fed’s and the ECB’s balance sheets is paramount.
Accordingly, our focus this week for the Euro is not solely on domestic developments but rather from those abroad (this will be a major theme across FX, not just the Euro). The Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday should prove to be rather disruptive to markets, irrespective of what else might be happening fundamentally or technically, as it did in on June 19 (beginning of taper speculation) and September 18 (surprise non-taper decision).
The Euro’s role in the Fed’s taper production is complicated. In June, the Fed meeting marked a two month top in the EURUSD as the pair slid from above 1.3400 at the time to under 1.2800 over the next four weeks. Yet with the USDJPY rallying, the EURJPY, after seeing several multi-hundred point swings in the days after the June FOMC, eventually settled higher. The EURAUD took a straight line up. In the “taper on” environment, the Euro suffered against the US Dollar, was at first neutral against the low yielding safe havens, and appreciated sharply against the commodity currencies.
We highlight these outcomes as it is possible the market isn’t positioned for a QE3 taper in the slighted. True, US yields have risen over the past several days; but consensus estimates for the composition of QE3 show that $85B/month in asset purchases is still expected going into 2014. A non-taper outcome, like in September, could produce a swiftly weaker US Dollar, and strength developing in the higher yielding and emerging market currencies (at the Euro’s expense). But if the Fed does taper, market participants, by and large, will be caught off guard. Indeed, the disruptive nature of the FOMC decision this week could unhinge FX markets from recent trends,tempering any impact seen from any Euro-borne developments over the coming days. –CV
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Taking these data a step further, we see that the ratio of the Fed’s balance sheet to the ECB’s balance sheet – which stood at 0.96 this time in December 2012 – is now at 1.72. On a relative basis, the Fed’s balance sheet has grown +79.2% relative to the ECB’s over the past year. We believe this has been the prime reason for a generally improving EURUSD in 2013. As such, any data or event that could alter the dynamic behind the Fed’s and the ECB’s balance sheets is paramount.
Accordingly, our focus this week for the Euro is not solely on domestic developments but rather from those abroad (this will be a major theme across FX, not just the Euro). The Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday should prove to be rather disruptive to markets, irrespective of what else might be happening fundamentally or technically, as it did in on June 19 (beginning of taper speculation) and September 18 (surprise non-taper decision).
The Euro’s role in the Fed’s taper production is complicated. In June, the Fed meeting marked a two month top in the EURUSD as the pair slid from above 1.3400 at the time to under 1.2800 over the next four weeks. Yet with the USDJPY rallying, the EURJPY, after seeing several multi-hundred point swings in the days after the June FOMC, eventually settled higher. The EURAUD took a straight line up. In the “taper on” environment, the Euro suffered against the US Dollar, was at first neutral against the low yielding safe havens, and appreciated sharply against the commodity currencies.
We highlight these outcomes as it is possible the market isn’t positioned for a QE3 taper in the slighted. True, US yields have risen over the past several days; but consensus estimates for the composition of QE3 show that $85B/month in asset purchases is still expected going into 2014. A non-taper outcome, like in September, could produce a swiftly weaker US Dollar, and strength developing in the higher yielding and emerging market currencies (at the Euro’s expense). But if the Fed does taper, market participants, by and large, will be caught off guard. Indeed, the disruptive nature of the FOMC decision this week could unhinge FX markets from recent trends,tempering any impact seen from any Euro-borne developments over the coming days. –CV
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Euro zone employment shows no change in third quarter
(Reuters) - The number of people with jobs in the euro zone was
unchanged for the second consecutive quarter in the three months to
September, showing the bloc's economic recovery has not yet filtered
through to the labor market.
But euro zone employment was shrinking more slowly than a year ago on a year-on-year basis -- it contracted 0.8 percent in the third quarter against -1.1 in the previous three months, data from the EU's Eurostat showed on Friday.
The unemployment in the 9.5 trillion euro economy, ravaged by 4 years of financial and economic crisis, remains near a record high above 12 percent and is expected to ease only gradually next year as economic growth slowly picks up.
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While Europe's largest economy Germany saw a quarterly 0.2 percent rise in employment, the second largest France registered no change for a third consecutive quarter.
Job creation was also flat in Italy and it fell in Spain, but the situation in both euro zone countries was improving since the beginning of this year, data showed.
Agriculture, industry and construction all showed a 0.3 percent drop in employment compared with the previous quarter, while real estate, professional and support activities were up 0.4 percent.
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But euro zone employment was shrinking more slowly than a year ago on a year-on-year basis -- it contracted 0.8 percent in the third quarter against -1.1 in the previous three months, data from the EU's Eurostat showed on Friday.
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